Does the addition of Jay Cutler make the Bears a Super Bowl contender? You probably already have heard some variation of this debate; if you haven't and don't wish to, you had best find some earplugs come training camp.
But one place where this discussion is basically over is the Las Vegas Strip, because the betting public has spoken by taking their cash to sportsbooks and backing the Bears to win Super Bowl XLIV in significant numbers. Before the Cutler trade, you could have found odds in Las Vegas as high as 40-1 on the Bears winning the Super Bowl, but those days have passed. At present, the prevailing price on the Bears winning their second Super Bowl is less than 10-1 at the casinos that dot Las Vegas Boulevard.
At the MGM Mirage family of casinos, the Bears are 6-1 to win the title — and the 3-1 favorites to win the NFC. At the Harrah's casinos, which includes Caesars Palace and its famed sportsbook, the Bears are 9-1 to win it all.
To get a sense of how the Bears were perceived before the addition of Cutler, you need look no further than their place on the MGM Mirage's odds sheets. When the Mirage released its 2010 pro football title odds in January, the Bears were the 19th team on the list, one of four teams offered at 30-1. In other words, they didn't look to be going anywhere fast.
"I would not even call them a second-tier team," said Jay Rood, the race and sportsbook director at MGM Mirage, of the Bears' standing with future-book bettors before Cutler's arrival. "They were a third-tier team."
They were, however, likely to draw more betting interest than most clubs because of their popularity even if they hadn't traded for Cutler, according to several oddsmakers interviewed by PFW. So the Bears' Super Bowl odds slowly started to come down throughout the winter and the early spring, even as the team was in the midst of a relatively quiet offseason.
Then, on April 2, the Bears threw everyone for a loop, acquiring Cutler from Denver. Las Vegas sportsbooks reacted by cutting the Bears' Super Bowl odds. At Harrah's, the odds dropped from 35-1 to 20-1. The Lucky's sportsbooks lowered the Bears' NFL title odds from 40-1 to 25-1. The most dramatic swing came at MGM Mirage, which had already lowered its odds on the Bears down to 20-1 before the trade, then slashed them in half to 10-1 after Cutler's arrival.
The lower odds did not deter the public. According to Rood, MGM Mirage took about 350 wagers on the Bears at 10-1 before lowering the odds to 8-1. After taking about 700 wagers at that price, the odds were lowered to 6-1. Rood, who as of last week had taken around 100 wagers on the Bears at 6-1, doesn't anticipate the odds going any lower than that, but he admits he wouldn't mind seeing some more wagers on other clubs, considering the heavy volume on Chicago. At Wynn Las Vegas and Encore, the Bears are 18-1 off a 30-1 opening line, and a Chicago Super Bowl win would be "a loss for the house," said John Avello, the director of race and sports operations for both hotels.
At Lucky's, which manages race and sportsbooks in 11 Nevada hotels, including Terrible's and the Plaza in Las Vegas, the Bears' odds have fallen to 12-1 due to significant interest in the Bears. Jimmy Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky's, marvels at bettors taking shorter and shorter prices on Chicago.
"One of the things you learn is: If they continue to take a bad price, let them take a bad price," said Vaccaro, who has more than 30 years of oddsmaking experience.
Vaccaro isn't alone in his skepticism. Rood said that Cutler is "not a gigantic upgrade, but you never know." over the departed Kyle Orton, who was traded to Denver in the Cutler deal.
But it is the bettors' preferences, not those of the oddsmakers, that ultimately shape the price you will get in Las Vegas, and especially so as the offseason progresses and the betting public starts to show its hand. And the public's affinity for the Bears and their strong-armed young quarterback is clear.
Several oddsmakers compared the effect of Cutler's arrival on the Bears' Super Bowl odds to what Brett Favre's "unretirement" did to the Jets' Super Bowl odds last offseason. The Jets, huge long shots to win Super Bowl XLIII, had their odds fall after acquiring Favre in August.
At present, Favre is contemplating another return to football, this time with the Vikings. Like everyone else, Nevada oddsmakers watch and wait — and wonder what he has left.
But this much is certain: He will make the Vikings more popular with the betting public. Avello cites Favre's "name factor" and notes the Vikings are already getting bet. MGM Mirage already has adjusted its odds.
Vaccaro has a good idea of what's coming if Favre suits up again.
"The moment Favre signs with the Vikings, you'll see Vikings money," he said.
Vaccaro added, "I enjoy things like that, because they both can't win," referring to the Vikings and Bears.