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STATS, LLC Week 9 of the 2009 Regular Season

Sun 11/8
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Overrated, underrated season-long fantasy stat

About the Author

Recent posts by Michael Blunda

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By Michael Blunda

10th in a series of overrated/underrated commentaries

Subject: Season-long fantasy stat

Overrated: 1,000 yards rushing/receiving

For running backs and wide receivers, the benchmark for a good season long has been reaching 1,000 yards. From a fantasy perspective, though, a guy who hits the 1,000-yard mark isn't necessarily a valuable commodity. After all, that only averages out to 62.5 yards per game, which isn't a very good fantasy performance in and of itself. Too many owners will assume that a player had a solid season simply because he had 1,000 yards, but that isn't always true, especially if he doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. For example, Browns RB Jamal Lewis ran for 1,002 yards in 2008, but he had only four TDs and averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Those numbers barely ranked him in the top 25 fantasy performers at his position. While accumulating 1,000 yards is nothing to scoff at, it takes more than that to be a fantasy star.

 

Underrated: Number of 100-yard games

People like to evaluate a player's season by looking at his cumulative numbers at the end of the year — carries, yards, touchdowns, etc. But those numerals don't tell the whole story. What if a guy had two or three monster outings and then was simply mediocre for the rest of the campaign? His final stat line might be impressive, but he was an effective fantasy player less than 20 percent of the time. A better way to measure both the production and consistency of a running back or receiver is to look at how many games of 100-plus yards he finished the season with. Besides the fact that many leagues reward bonus points for 100-yard performances, players racking up 100-yard games with regularity are consistently giving their owners solid fantasy totals, something that's often difficult to come by. It's no coincidence that the top three fantasy RBs from '08 — DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner and Adrian Peterson — had eight, eight and 10 100-yard games, respectively.

 

In addition to what you can read on our Web site, PFW editors sounded off on 10 more "overrated/underrated" topics in the Preview '09 magazine by PFW and Yahoo! Sports, now on sale at bookstores and newsstands across the country and online at PFWstore.com.

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