Seventh in a series of overrated/underrated commentaries

Question: Which handicapping angles are overrated? Underrated?

Overrated handicapping angle — The “must-win game”

Ah, the “must-win game.” The phrase gets dusted off and trotted out late in every regular season. The scenario goes something like this: Team X is in playoff contention; Team Y is out of the postseason mix and (seemingly) looking toward next season. Therefore, the logic goes, motivated Team X should have no problems drubbing it’s-almost-time-to-go-clubbing-in-Vegas Team Y. Does the above scenario happen? Sure, it does, and handicappers can profit from it on occasion. But it is not a fail-safe angle, and it is one rife with risks. For one, you’re likely going to have to pay to play; lines for such “must-win” games are usually inflated. Also, you have to strongly consider why a team is in a must-win situation. If you’re going to bet a team in desperate need of a victory, you better understand its flaws. And you better be able to assess the team’s current form. Is the team peaking, or is it a team whose best football was played in October? Making such accurate assessments can keep you away from backing clubs like the 2008 Jets and Broncos, both of whom started to go bad in the final weeks of the season and failed in situations where they looked to have clear motivation edges over their opponents. 

Underrated handicapping angle — Weather

There was a time when bad weather could have taken handicappers by surprise, but that was in the pre-Internet and pre-cable-TV age. Today’s savvy handicappers are assessing how weather could affect their prime plays days before the games are played. No, you don’t have to be an amateur meteorologist, but you should be regularly checking useful weather Web sites like weather.com and weatherunderground.com daily to gauge if the conditions will materially affect your handicapping. High winds in the forecast? You might want to pass on backing a passing team and set your sights on playing the Under. Weather can create some of the juiciest betting opportunities available for handicappers. The trick is sniffing them out and striking — hopefully before it’s five minutes to game time, the line in the sports book is 20-deep and the value has evaporated.

In addition to what you can read on our Web site, PFW editors sounded off on 10 more "overrated/underrated" topics in the Preview '09 magazine by PFW and Yahoo! Sports, now on sale at bookstores and newsstands across the country and online at PFWstore.com.