Sixth in a series of overrated/underrated commentaries

Question: Which NFL division is the most overrated? Underrated?

Most overrated division: AFC South

Let's start right at the top with the two supposed powerhouses in this division - the undeniably successful Colts, who have rung up no fewer than 12 victories in each of the last six seasons, and the much less glamorous but similarly successful Titans, who have enjoyed at least a two-victory increase in each of the last four seasons, capped off by last year's impressive, division-winning 13-3 campaign. The Colts and Titans are ranked fourth and sixth, respectively, in Pro Football Weekly's 2009 preseason Power Rankings — see the June 2009 print edition, available at newsstands and at PFWstore.com — but the more I analyze these two teams, the less I believe they deserve such lofty status.

In the Colts' case, two extremely key ingredients in their time-tested recipe for success — head coach Tony Dungy and WR Marvin Harrison — are no longer part of the mix. Granted, Harrison might have been on his last legs last season. But even though I'm a big Anthony Gonzalez fan, I can see Harrison's presence both on and off the field being sorely missed. Obviously, Dungy's presence will be sorely missed. And let's not forget the loss of both coordinators - Ron Meeks on defense and, more significantly, Tom Moore on offense — as well as longtime successful O-line coach Howard Mudd. One could obviously say that, as long as the Colts have Peyton Manning under center, they will remain one of the league's better teams. But God help the Colts if Manning goes down! Unlike the Patriots, who did a decent job persevering last season after Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury in Week One, the Colts would figure to quickly crumble without Manning doing his thing.

As for the Titans' situation under center, can anybody be completely confident that aging Kerry Collins, who was surprisingly solid last season, will continue to overcome his obvious limitations at this stage of his career? When you add the fact that the Titans WR corps remains ordinary at best, and that the team has lost arguably the league's best interior defender up front in Albert Haynesworth, a third straight double-digit win total could be hard to come by.

And when you further add the Texans and Jaguars to the equation — they rank 18th and 24th, respectively, in PFW's rankings — you come up with a division that could be heading significantly south in overall win totals in 2009.

Most underrated division: NFC West

It's been widely called the "NFC Worst" for what seems forever, and there's good reason for that. But it says here that there's equally good reason to believe that the NFC West no longer deserves such a hard-earned weak-sister image. To begin with, the Cardinals' quantum leap in the desert was NOT a mirage. Although it has lost players like Edgerrin James on offense and Antonio Smith on defense and has an inordinate number of potentially divisive contract concerns, this is a team that figures to be a rock-solid contender as long as Ken Whisenhunt keeps doing a good job coaching, Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald keep effectively spearheading one of the league's livelier offenses, and defenders like Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett and Adrian Wilson can pick up where they left off last postseason.

That said, a cakewalk toward a second straight division title is far from a sure thing. The Seahawks look like a team that could be breathing very heavily down the Cardinals' necks all season after making what look like major improvements in both the draft (OLB Aaron Curry) and free agency (T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cory Redding, Colin Cole, Ken Lucas). I would agree with the widely held belief that the Seahawks were snakebitten by injuries more than any other team last year, and I think their luck will improve by leaps and bounds this season.

Beyond that, the Niners and Rams appear quite determined to establish dramatically different cultures with Mike Singletary and Steve Spagnuolo, respectively, at the helms, and the arrows for both teams are definitely pointing way up. That's especially the case with the Rams, whom I could easily see tripling their 2008 win total.

If any of these teams ends up doing what the Cardinals ended up doing, out of nowhere, last season — playing games against teams from the rather ordinary AFC East certainly won't hurt their cause — it should not be considered an out-and-out shock by any means.

In addition to what you can read on our Web site, PFW editors sounded off on 10 more "overrated/underrated" topics in the Preview '09 magazine by PFW and Yahoo! Sports, now on sale at bookstores and newsstands across the country and online at PFWstore.com.